To be clear, I wrote “superforecasters” not because I mean the word, but because I think the very notion is controversial like you said—for example, I personally doubt the existence of people who can be predictably “good at reasoning under uncertainty” in areas where they have no expertise.
To be clear, I wrote “superforecasters” not because I mean the word, but because I think the very notion is controversial like you said—for example, I personally doubt the existence of people who can be predictably “good at reasoning under uncertainty” in areas where they have no expertise.