This was gonna be a comment, but it turned into a post about whether large AI forecasting prizes could be suboptimal.
It’s worth stating explicitly that an actual working technical solution to the alignment problem with low tax would substantially update the panel’s beliefs about proposition A. So this isn’t necessarily a contest about forecasting-arguments even if it’s (misguidedly, imo) presented as one.
I think this matters because I don’t see forecasting as being a very targeted use of time for making the world better. In the worst case, this contest can make people less effective because it incentivises them to work on forecasting when they counterfactually would have worked on generating solutions. If the latter is substantially more important on the margin, this contest is probably bad.
This was gonna be a comment, but it turned into a post about whether large AI forecasting prizes could be suboptimal.