By my judgment, all three made strong negative assessments, in the sense (among others) that if one agreed with the review, one would not use the report’s reasoning to inform decision-making in the manner advocated by Karnofsky (and by Beckstead).
For Hajek&Strasser’s and Halpern’s reviews, I don’t think “strong negative assessment” is supported by your quotes. The quotes focus on things like ‘the reported numbers are too precise’ and ‘we should use more than a single probability measure’ rather than whether the estimate is too high or too low overall or whether we should be worrying more vs less about TAI. I also think the reviews are more positive overall than you imply, e.g. Halpern’s review says “This seems to be the most serious attempt to estimate when AGI will be developed that I’ve seen”
I agree that these two reviewers assign much lower probabilities to explosive growth than I do (I explain why I continue to disagree with them in my responses to their reviews). Again though, I think these reviews are more positive overall than you imply, e.g. Jones states that the report “is balanced, engaging a wide set of viewpoints and acknowledging debates and uncertainties… is also admirably clear in its arguments and in digesting the literature… engages key ideas in a transparent way, integrating perspectives and developing its analysis clearly and coherently.” This is important as it helps us move from “maybe we’re completely missing a big consideration” to “some experts continue to disagree for certain reasons, but we have a solid understanding of the relevant considerations and can hold our own in a disagreement”.
I included responses to each review, explaining my reactions to it. What kind of additional explanation were you hoping for?
For Hajek&Strasser’s and Halpern’s reviews, I don’t think “strong negative assessment” is supported by your quotes. The quotes focus on things like ‘the reported numbers are too precise’ and ‘we should use more than a single probability measure’ rather than whether the estimate is too high or too low overall or whether we should be worrying more vs less about TAI. I also think the reviews are more positive overall than you imply, e.g. Halpern’s review says “This seems to be the most serious attempt to estimate when AGI will be developed that I’ve seen”
I agree that these two reviewers assign much lower probabilities to explosive growth than I do (I explain why I continue to disagree with them in my responses to their reviews). Again though, I think these reviews are more positive overall than you imply, e.g. Jones states that the report “is balanced, engaging a wide set of viewpoints and acknowledging debates and uncertainties… is also admirably clear in its arguments and in digesting the literature… engages key ideas in a transparent way, integrating perspectives and developing its analysis clearly and coherently.” This is important as it helps us move from “maybe we’re completely missing a big consideration” to “some experts continue to disagree for certain reasons, but we have a solid understanding of the relevant considerations and can hold our own in a disagreement”.