I’m thinking more along the lines of how things are with the current level of progress on AI Alignment and AI Governance, or assuming that the needle doesn’t move appreciably on these. In the limit of zero needle movement, this would be equivalent to if AGI was invented tomorrow.
What does “as things stand” mean? If we invented AGI tomorrow? That doesn’t seem like a useful prediction.
I’m thinking more along the lines of how things are with the current level of progress on AI Alignment and AI Governance, or assuming that the needle doesn’t move appreciably on these. In the limit of zero needle movement, this would be equivalent to if AGI was invented tomorrow.