Adding: I’m worried that nobody will address FTX’s reasons to believe what they believe, and FTX will conclude “well, we put out a $1.5M bounty and nobody found flaws, they only addressed straw arguments that we don’t even believe in, this is pretty strong evidence we are correct!
TL;DR: We might need to ping pong with you in order to change your mind. We don’t know why you believe what you believe.
60% AGI by 2100 seems really low (as well as 15% `P(misalignment x-risk|AGI)`). I’d need to know why you believe it in order to change your mind.
Specifically, I’d be happy to hear where you disagree with AGI ruin scenarios are likely (and disjunctive) by So8res.
Adding: I’m worried that nobody will address FTX’s reasons to believe what they believe, and FTX will conclude “well, we put out a $1.5M bounty and nobody found flaws, they only addressed straw arguments that we don’t even believe in, this is pretty strong evidence we are correct!
Please consider replying, FTX!