I agree that finding the cruxes of disagreement are important, but I don’t think any of the critical quotes you present above are that strong. The reviews of semi-informative priors talk about error bars and precision (i.e. critique the model), but don’t actually give different answers. On explosive growth, Jones talks about the conclusion being contrary to his “intuitions”, and acknowledges that “[his] views may prove wrong”. Vollrath mentions “output and demand”, but then talks about human productivity when regarding outputs, and admits that AI could create new in-demand products. If these are the best existing sources for lowering the Future Fund’s probabilities, then I think someone should be able to do better.
On the other hand, I think that the real probabilities are higher, and am confused as to why the Future Fund haven’t already updated to higher probabilities, given some of the writing already out there. I give a speculative reason here.
I agree that finding the cruxes of disagreement are important, but I don’t think any of the critical quotes you present above are that strong. The reviews of semi-informative priors talk about error bars and precision (i.e. critique the model), but don’t actually give different answers. On explosive growth, Jones talks about the conclusion being contrary to his “intuitions”, and acknowledges that “[his] views may prove wrong”. Vollrath mentions “output and demand”, but then talks about human productivity when regarding outputs, and admits that AI could create new in-demand products. If these are the best existing sources for lowering the Future Fund’s probabilities, then I think someone should be able to do better.
On the other hand, I think that the real probabilities are higher, and am confused as to why the Future Fund haven’t already updated to higher probabilities, given some of the writing already out there. I give a speculative reason here.