Looking forward to seeing the entries. Similar toothers, I feel that P(misalignment x-risk|AGI) is high (at least 35%, and likely >75%), so think that a prize for convincing FF of that should be won. Similar for P(AGI will be developed by January 1, 2043) >45%. But then I’m also not sure what would be needed in addition to all the great pieces of writing on this already out there (some mentioned in OP).
I’m hoping that there will be good entries from Eliezer Yudkowsky (on P(misalignment x-risk|AGI) >75%; previous), Ajeya Cotra (on P(AGI will be developed by January 1, 2043) >45%; previous), Daniel Kokotajlo (on P(AGI will be developed by January 1, 2043) >75%?; previous) and possibly Holden Karnofsky (although I’m not sure his credences for these probabilities are much different to FF’s current baseline; previous). Also Carlsmith says he’s recently (May 2022) updated his probabilities from “~5%” to “>10%” for P(misalignment x-risk) by 2070. This is unconditional, i.e. including p(AGI) by 2070, and his estimate for P(AGI by 2070) is 65%, so that puts him at P(misalignment x-risk|AGI) >15%, so an entry from him (for P(misalignment x-risk|AGI) >35%) could be good too (although just being >15% is still perhaps a far cry from >35%!). Others I think it would be good to see entries for on P(misalignment x-risk|AGI) >75% from are Nate Soares (previous) and Rob Bensinger (previous). Also maybe Rob Miles? (previous).
Looking forward to seeing the entries. Similar to others, I feel that P(misalignment x-risk|AGI) is high (at least 35%, and likely >75%), so think that a prize for convincing FF of that should be won. Similar for P(AGI will be developed by January 1, 2043) >45%. But then I’m also not sure what would be needed in addition to all the great pieces of writing on this already out there (some mentioned in OP).
I’m hoping that there will be good entries from Eliezer Yudkowsky (on P(misalignment x-risk|AGI) >75%; previous), Ajeya Cotra (on P(AGI will be developed by January 1, 2043) >45%; previous), Daniel Kokotajlo (on P(AGI will be developed by January 1, 2043) >75%?; previous) and possibly Holden Karnofsky (although I’m not sure his credences for these probabilities are much different to FF’s current baseline; previous). Also Carlsmith says he’s recently (May 2022) updated his probabilities from “~5%” to “>10%” for P(misalignment x-risk) by 2070. This is unconditional, i.e. including p(AGI) by 2070, and his estimate for P(AGI by 2070) is 65%, so that puts him at P(misalignment x-risk|AGI) >15%, so an entry from him (for P(misalignment x-risk|AGI) >35%) could be good too (although just being >15% is still perhaps a far cry from >35%!). Others I think it would be good to see entries for on P(misalignment x-risk|AGI) >75% from are Nate Soares (previous) and Rob Bensinger (previous). Also maybe Rob Miles? (previous).