Executive summary: The concept of “Indexes” is introduced as a method to quantify vague yet crucial forecasting questions, such as AGI readiness, by aggregating weighted answers to a curated set of sub-questions, enabling actionable insights into nebulous topics.
Key points:
Indexes aim to operationalize vague, consequential questions (e.g., AGI readiness) by providing a numerical scale (-100 to 100) based on weighted forecasts of related sub-questions.
Index construction involves selecting, specifying, and weighting sub-questions deemed informative by index authors, ensuring complementary and independent insights.
A flagship example, the “AGI Readiness Index,” uses eight key axes such as AI legislation, transparency, and incident reporting, derived from expert workshops.
Indexes are intended to provoke discussion and critique, fostering collaboration to refine questions, weights, and perspectives.
Upcoming indexes include “AI for Public Good” and “China Capabilities Index,” aiming to broaden the scope of big-picture insights.
Inspired by methodologies like the Forecasting Research Institute’s “Conditional Trees” and Cultivate Labs’ decomposition approach, Indexes balance rigor with practical, flexible implementation.
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Executive summary: The concept of “Indexes” is introduced as a method to quantify vague yet crucial forecasting questions, such as AGI readiness, by aggregating weighted answers to a curated set of sub-questions, enabling actionable insights into nebulous topics.
Key points:
Indexes aim to operationalize vague, consequential questions (e.g., AGI readiness) by providing a numerical scale (-100 to 100) based on weighted forecasts of related sub-questions.
Index construction involves selecting, specifying, and weighting sub-questions deemed informative by index authors, ensuring complementary and independent insights.
A flagship example, the “AGI Readiness Index,” uses eight key axes such as AI legislation, transparency, and incident reporting, derived from expert workshops.
Indexes are intended to provoke discussion and critique, fostering collaboration to refine questions, weights, and perspectives.
Upcoming indexes include “AI for Public Good” and “China Capabilities Index,” aiming to broaden the scope of big-picture insights.
Inspired by methodologies like the Forecasting Research Institute’s “Conditional Trees” and Cultivate Labs’ decomposition approach, Indexes balance rigor with practical, flexible implementation.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.