Yep, I still endorse the post. It does what it says on the tin, and it does it well. Highest compliment I’ve received about it (courtesy of Katja): Good Judgment project guy got back to us [...] and also said, “And I just realized that your shop wrote a very smart, subtle review of Tetlock’s book Superforecasting a couple years ago. I’ve referred to it many times.”
I recently had an opportunity to reflect on how it influenced me and what if anything I now disagree with:
Two years ago I wrote a deep-dive summary of Superforecasting and the associated scientific literature. I learned about the “Outside view” / “Inside view” distinction, and the evidence supporting it. At the time I was excited about the concept and wrote: “...I think we should do our best to imitate these best-practices, and that means using the outside view far more than we would naturally be inclined.”
Now that I have more experience, I think the concept is doing more harm than good in our community. The term is easily abused and its meaning has expanded too much. I recommend we permanently taboo “Outside view,” i.e. stop using the word and use more precise, less confused concepts instead. This post explains why.
(I’m the author)
Yep, I still endorse the post. It does what it says on the tin, and it does it well. Highest compliment I’ve received about it (courtesy of Katja): Good Judgment project guy got back to us [...] and also said, “And I just realized that your shop wrote a very smart, subtle review of Tetlock’s book Superforecasting a couple years ago. I’ve referred to it many times.”
I recently had an opportunity to reflect on how it influenced me and what if anything I now disagree with:
One minor thing to change has to do with what Linch points out.