Thanks for your generous reply, Claire. I agree the âdouble countingâ issue remains challenging, although my thought was that most people, at least in the wider world, are currently pretty immodest, the downsides are not too large in what I take to be common applications where you are trying to weigh up large groups of people/âexperts. I agree thereâs a risk of degrading norms if people mistakenly switch to offering âoutside viewâ credences publicly.
I regret I hadnât seen the âimpressionsâ versus âbeliefsâ distinction being used before. âImpressionâ works very well for âcredence by my lightsâ (I had toyed with using the term âimageâ), but Iâm not sure âbeliefâ translates quite so well for those who havenât seen the way the term is used in the rationalist community. I guess this might just be hard, as there does seem to be a good word (or two) I can find which captures modesty (âbeing modest, my credence is Xâ, âmodestly, I think itâs Yâ, maybe?)
Thanks for your generous reply, Claire. I agree the âdouble countingâ issue remains challenging, although my thought was that most people, at least in the wider world, are currently pretty immodest, the downsides are not too large in what I take to be common applications where you are trying to weigh up large groups of people/âexperts. I agree thereâs a risk of degrading norms if people mistakenly switch to offering âoutside viewâ credences publicly.
I regret I hadnât seen the âimpressionsâ versus âbeliefsâ distinction being used before. âImpressionâ works very well for âcredence by my lightsâ (I had toyed with using the term âimageâ), but Iâm not sure âbeliefâ translates quite so well for those who havenât seen the way the term is used in the rationalist community. I guess this might just be hard, as there does seem to be a good word (or two) I can find which captures modesty (âbeing modest, my credence is Xâ, âmodestly, I think itâs Yâ, maybe?)