The dichotomy I see the most at MIRI is ‘one’s inside-view model’ v. ‘one’s belief’, where the latter tries to take into account things like model uncertainty, outside-view debiasing for addressing things like the planning fallacy, and deference to epistemic peers. Nate draws this distinction a lot.
The dichotomy I see the most at MIRI is ‘one’s inside-view model’ v. ‘one’s belief’, where the latter tries to take into account things like model uncertainty, outside-view debiasing for addressing things like the planning fallacy, and deference to epistemic peers. Nate draws this distinction a lot.
I guess you could make a trichotomy:
a) Your inside-view model.
b) Your all-things-considered private signal, where you’ve added outside-view reasoning, taken model uncertainty into account, etc.
c) Your all-things-considered belief, which also takes the views of your epistemic peers into account.