Hmm, would you then also say that we should be skeptical about claims about the overall usefulness of university group organising. If you frame it as an intervention of “run x program (intro fellowship, retreat, etc.) that will increase probability someone has a large positive impact”, would you also have a strong prior that it has no effect because most interventions people try especially education interventions which is a lot of what uni groups try to do have no or small effect?
Hmm, would you then also say that we should be skeptical about claims about the overall usefulness of university group organising. If you frame it as an intervention of “run x program (intro fellowship, retreat, etc.) that will increase probability someone has a large positive impact”, would you also have a strong prior that it has no effect because most interventions people try especially education interventions which is a lot of what uni groups try to do have no or small effect?