In the associated spreadsheet, I list my own subjective evidential weight scores where positive numbers indicate evidence for +EV and negative numbers indicate evidence for -EV. It is helpful to think through these arguments with different assignment and aggregation methods, such as linear or logarithmic scaling. With different methodologies to aggregate my own estimates or those of others, the total estimate is highly negative around 30% of the time, weakly negative 40%, and weakly positive 30%. It is almost never highly positive. I encourage people to make their own estimates, and while I think such quantifications are usually better than intuitive gestalts, all such estimates should be taken with golf balls of salt.[5]
It’s already in the summary: