Sorry that this is still confusing. 5-15 is the confidence interval/range for the counterfactual impact of protests, i.e. p(event occurs with protests) - p(event occurs without protests) = somewhere between 5 and 15. Rather than p(event occurs with protests) = 5, p(event occurs without protests) = 15, which wouldn’t make sense.
Sorry that this is still confusing. 5-15 is the confidence interval/range for the counterfactual impact of protests, i.e. p(event occurs with protests) - p(event occurs without protests) = somewhere between 5 and 15. Rather than p(event occurs with protests) = 5, p(event occurs without protests) = 15, which wouldn’t make sense.