First of all—great concept and great execution. Lots of interesting information and a lucid, well-supported conclusion.
My initial and I feel insufficiently addressed concern is that successful protests will of course be overlooked because in retrospect the technology they are protesting will seem “obviously doomed” or “not the right technology” etc. Additionally, successful protests are probably a lot shorter than the unsuccessful ones (which go on for years continuing to try to stop something that is never stopped). I’m not sure this is evidence that the successful protests “don’t count” because they were “too small.”
I see you considered some of this in your (very interesting) section on “other interesting examples of technological restraint” but I would emphasize these and others like them are quite relevant as long as they obey your other constraints of similar-enough motivation and technology.
I was not able to come up with any examples to contribute. I feel there are a significant subset of things (pesticides, internet structural decisions, nonstandard incompatible designs?) that were attractive but would have resulted in a worse future had they not been successfully diverted.
I think your point about hindsight bias is a good one. I think it is true of technological restraint in general: “Often, in cases where a state decided against pursuing a strategically pivotal technology for reasons of risk, or cost, or (moral or risk) concerns, this can be mis-interpreted as a case where the technology probably was never viable.”
I haven’t discounted protests which were small – GMO campaigns and SAI advocacy were both small scale. The fact that unsuccessful protests are more prolonged might make them more psychologically available: e.g. Just Stop Oil campaigns. I’m slightly unsure what your point is here?
I also agree that other examples of restraint are also relevant – particularly if public pressure was involved (like for Operation Popeye, and Boeing 2707).
First of all—great concept and great execution. Lots of interesting information and a lucid, well-supported conclusion.
My initial and I feel insufficiently addressed concern is that successful protests will of course be overlooked because in retrospect the technology they are protesting will seem “obviously doomed” or “not the right technology” etc. Additionally, successful protests are probably a lot shorter than the unsuccessful ones (which go on for years continuing to try to stop something that is never stopped). I’m not sure this is evidence that the successful protests “don’t count” because they were “too small.”
I see you considered some of this in your (very interesting) section on “other interesting examples of technological restraint” but I would emphasize these and others like them are quite relevant as long as they obey your other constraints of similar-enough motivation and technology.
I was not able to come up with any examples to contribute. I feel there are a significant subset of things (pesticides, internet structural decisions, nonstandard incompatible designs?) that were attractive but would have resulted in a worse future had they not been successfully diverted.
Thank you!
I think your point about hindsight bias is a good one. I think it is true of technological restraint in general: “Often, in cases where a state decided against pursuing a strategically pivotal technology for reasons of risk, or cost, or (moral or risk) concerns, this can be mis-interpreted as a case where the technology probably was never viable.”
I haven’t discounted protests which were small – GMO campaigns and SAI advocacy were both small scale. The fact that unsuccessful protests are more prolonged might make them more psychologically available: e.g. Just Stop Oil campaigns. I’m slightly unsure what your point is here?
I also agree that other examples of restraint are also relevant – particularly if public pressure was involved (like for Operation Popeye, and Boeing 2707).