There are not too many case studies to look at here, but in Bhutan, their 2010 ban on the importation and sale of all tobacco products (which was coupled with government counseling and treatment to facilitate cessation) proved controversial and difficult to enforce in the face of large-scale smuggling and was eventually scaled back in 2021.
In 1633, Murad IV banned all tobacco in the Ottoman Empire—the policy was reversed by his successor 10-15 years later
The longest ban in history was implemented in Muscovy Russia in 1634 and lasted just over fifty years until Peter the Great repealed it
A smoke-free generation law similar to what one SMA incubatee has argued for was passed in New Zealand in 2022 and repealed less than two years later
Jurisdictions where cigarettes are currently taxed higher than most of the market will bear, or where noncombustible products are banned, also offer some evidence about the feasibility of keeping smuggling down:
A study examining littered cigarette packs in New York City found less than 20% of them had tax stamps showing they were legally sold
Seizures of e-cigarettes in Brazil, where vaping is completely banned, have been growing since 2019 and reached 1.3 million units in 2023
Keeping a ban in place for a median of ~10 years (based on the four mostly historical examples you cited) strikes me as a pretty successful failure. There are reasons to have some skepticism about a ban, but I don’t see this as one of them.
There are not too many case studies to look at here, but in Bhutan, their 2010 ban on the importation and sale of all tobacco products (which was coupled with government counseling and treatment to facilitate cessation) proved controversial and difficult to enforce in the face of large-scale smuggling and was eventually scaled back in 2021.
It seems to me there’s a lot of available data to help make an informed guess of the likelihood of success of the kind of measure SMA advocates for.
Tobacco bans are almost as old as the global tobacco trade itself, and all of them have been eventually reversed. Some examples beyond that of Bhutan:
A 17th century ban on tobacco in Japan lasted less than a decade
In 1633, Murad IV banned all tobacco in the Ottoman Empire—the policy was reversed by his successor 10-15 years later
The longest ban in history was implemented in Muscovy Russia in 1634 and lasted just over fifty years until Peter the Great repealed it
A smoke-free generation law similar to what one SMA incubatee has argued for was passed in New Zealand in 2022 and repealed less than two years later
Jurisdictions where cigarettes are currently taxed higher than most of the market will bear, or where noncombustible products are banned, also offer some evidence about the feasibility of keeping smuggling down:
A study examining littered cigarette packs in New York City found less than 20% of them had tax stamps showing they were legally sold
Seizures of e-cigarettes in Brazil, where vaping is completely banned, have been growing since 2019 and reached 1.3 million units in 2023
El Colegio de México estimates about 5 million daily vapers in a country whose vape ban is in the constitution
Reuters estimates the size of the current illegal vape market in the USA at about $2.4 billion
Keeping a ban in place for a median of ~10 years (based on the four mostly historical examples you cited) strikes me as a pretty successful failure. There are reasons to have some skepticism about a ban, but I don’t see this as one of them.