Isn’t this essentially a reformulation of the common EA argument that the most high-impact ideas are likely to be “weird-sounding” or unintuitive? I think it’s a strong point in favor of explicit modelling, but I want to avoid double-counting evidence if they are in fact similar arguments.
Nah, I’m just saying that a curse applies to every method, so it doesn’t tell us to use a particular method. I’m excluding arguments from the issue, not bringing them in. So if we were previously thinking that weird causes are good and common sense/model pluralism aren’t useful, then we should just stick to our guns. But if we were previously thinking that common sense/model pluralism are generally more accurate anyway, then we should stick with them.
Isn’t this essentially a reformulation of the common EA argument that the most high-impact ideas are likely to be “weird-sounding” or unintuitive? I think it’s a strong point in favor of explicit modelling, but I want to avoid double-counting evidence if they are in fact similar arguments.
Nah, I’m just saying that a curse applies to every method, so it doesn’t tell us to use a particular method. I’m excluding arguments from the issue, not bringing them in. So if we were previously thinking that weird causes are good and common sense/model pluralism aren’t useful, then we should just stick to our guns. But if we were previously thinking that common sense/model pluralism are generally more accurate anyway, then we should stick with them.