Can you expand on how you would directly estimate the reliability of charity evaluations? I feel like there are a lot of realistic situations where this would be extremely difficult to do well.
I mean do the adjustment for the optimizer’s curse. Or whatever else is in that paper.
I think talk of doing things “well” or “reliably” should be tabooed from this discussion, because no one has any coherent idea of what the threshold for ‘well enough’ or ‘reliable enough’ means or is in this context. “Better” or “more reliable” makes sense.
Can you expand on how you would directly estimate the reliability of charity evaluations? I feel like there are a lot of realistic situations where this would be extremely difficult to do well.
I mean do the adjustment for the optimizer’s curse. Or whatever else is in that paper.
I think talk of doing things “well” or “reliably” should be tabooed from this discussion, because no one has any coherent idea of what the threshold for ‘well enough’ or ‘reliable enough’ means or is in this context. “Better” or “more reliable” makes sense.