it’s hard to come up with priors that are good enough that choosing actions based explicit Bayesian calculations will lead to better outcomes than choosing actions based on a combination of careful skepticism, information gathering, hunches, and critical thinking.
Explicit Bayesian calculation is a way of choosing actions based on a combination of careful skepticism, information gathering, hunches, and critical thinking. (With math too.)
I’m guessing you mean we should use intuition for the final selection, instead of quantitative estimates. OK, but I don’t see how the original post is supposed to back it up; I don’t see what the optimizer’s curse has to do with it.
Explicit Bayesian calculation is a way of choosing actions based on a combination of careful skepticism, information gathering, hunches, and critical thinking. (With math too.)
I’m guessing you mean we should use intuition for the final selection, instead of quantitative estimates. OK, but I don’t see how the original post is supposed to back it up; I don’t see what the optimizer’s curse has to do with it.