Thanks for sharing the post from Our Wold in Data—this is a great resource.
One driver you’ve listed from this article (the empowerment of women) seems to be an explanation for the growing ‘fertility gap’ observed in many developing nations (0.3 in the UK). This study assessing women within their fertility window found those with a university-level education did not start thinking about having children until 33, at which point their fertility is notably reduced relative to its peak. I wonder if having artificial wombs would minimise this gap by extending the fertility window of women who want to conceive and have a full professional career.
I believe your latter points (people not having children due to having more ‘interesting things to do’, concerns around high birth rates in fanatical religious groups, and AGI-driven increases) are too speculative for me to incorporate into my thinking.
I see. Yeah, that point makes a lot of sense. According to this Gallup study, the typical desired number of children for a US family has stabilized at 2.6 for the past thirty years. Assuming this number isn’t too affected by immigration and is likely to stay the same with a similar economic situation (and that economic situation persists), your conclusion seems pretty strong to me.
Thanks for sharing the post from Our Wold in Data—this is a great resource.
One driver you’ve listed from this article (the empowerment of women) seems to be an explanation for the growing ‘fertility gap’ observed in many developing nations (0.3 in the UK). This study assessing women within their fertility window found those with a university-level education did not start thinking about having children until 33, at which point their fertility is notably reduced relative to its peak. I wonder if having artificial wombs would minimise this gap by extending the fertility window of women who want to conceive and have a full professional career.
I believe your latter points (people not having children due to having more ‘interesting things to do’, concerns around high birth rates in fanatical religious groups, and AGI-driven increases) are too speculative for me to incorporate into my thinking.
I see. Yeah, that point makes a lot of sense. According to this Gallup study, the typical desired number of children for a US family has stabilized at 2.6 for the past thirty years. Assuming this number isn’t too affected by immigration and is likely to stay the same with a similar economic situation (and that economic situation persists), your conclusion seems pretty strong to me.