“Rob Wiblin opines that the fertility crash would be a global priority if not for AI likely replacing human labor soon and obviating the need for countries to have large human populations”
This is a case where it really matters whether you are giving an extremely high chance that AGI is coming within 20-30 years, or merely a decently high chance. If you think the chance is like 75%, and the claim that conditional on no AGI, low fertility would be a big problem is correct, then the problem is only cut by 4x, which is compatible with it still being large and worth working on. Really, you need to get above 97-8% before it starts looking clear that low fertility is not worth worrying about, if we assume that conditional on no AGI it will be a big problem.
“Rob Wiblin opines that the fertility crash would be a global priority if not for AI likely replacing human labor soon and obviating the need for countries to have large human populations”
This is a case where it really matters whether you are giving an extremely high chance that AGI is coming within 20-30 years, or merely a decently high chance. If you think the chance is like 75%, and the claim that conditional on no AGI, low fertility would be a big problem is correct, then the problem is only cut by 4x, which is compatible with it still being large and worth working on. Really, you need to get above 97-8% before it starts looking clear that low fertility is not worth worrying about, if we assume that conditional on no AGI it will be a big problem.