We shouldn’t be focused too heavily on what is politically feasible this year. A fair amount of our attention should be on what to prepare in order to handle a scenario in which there’s more of an expert consensus a couple of years from now.
This is a fair point, but we’re thinking about a scenario where such consensus takes a much much longer time to emerge. There’s no real reason to be sure that a super advanced model a couple of years from now will do the kinds of things that would produce a consensus.
We shouldn’t be focused too heavily on what is politically feasible this year. A fair amount of our attention should be on what to prepare in order to handle a scenario in which there’s more of an expert consensus a couple of years from now.
This is a fair point, but we’re thinking about a scenario where such consensus takes a much much longer time to emerge. There’s no real reason to be sure that a super advanced model a couple of years from now will do the kinds of things that would produce a consensus.