The opinion poll option would not be helpful as an overwhelming majority of Conservative voters, and a majority of non-Conservative voters, are in favour of cutting our aid commitment.
Interesting. If most voters are in favor of cutting aid, AND this is clear to the MPs, then why would MPs have an incentive to vote against cutting aid?
One reason I can think of is if there is a well-organized interest group that, even though small in size, tries very hard to influence the MPs, leading them to help this group rather than the general population. (This seems to be the case in some areas in US policy.) In this case, you may want to create the impression of having a well-organized interest group—which seems hard, but I wonder what strategies could help.
Another is that some MPs are personally against cutting aid and are willing to vote against it—even though their voters favor cutting aid, voters don’t care about this issue passionately and won’t punish the MP much if they vote against. In this case, I wonder what strategies can persuade them.
Sorry if I come off as skeptical. I’m just thinking maybe thinking through the theory of change , incentives and the psychology of the MPs can help you refine your strategy, but no need to spend much time replying if you don’t find this useful.
The opinion poll option would not be helpful as an overwhelming majority of Conservative voters, and a majority of non-Conservative voters, are in favour of cutting our aid commitment.
Interesting. If most voters are in favor of cutting aid, AND this is clear to the MPs, then why would MPs have an incentive to vote against cutting aid?
One reason I can think of is if there is a well-organized interest group that, even though small in size, tries very hard to influence the MPs, leading them to help this group rather than the general population. (This seems to be the case in some areas in US policy.) In this case, you may want to create the impression of having a well-organized interest group—which seems hard, but I wonder what strategies could help.
Another is that some MPs are personally against cutting aid and are willing to vote against it—even though their voters favor cutting aid, voters don’t care about this issue passionately and won’t punish the MP much if they vote against. In this case, I wonder what strategies can persuade them.
Sorry if I come off as skeptical. I’m just thinking maybe thinking through the theory of change , incentives and the psychology of the MPs can help you refine your strategy, but no need to spend much time replying if you don’t find this useful.