So I agree that this is a good point and selection will definitely apply but I feel like I still don’t quite agree with the phrasing (though it is sort of nitpicky).
>For them to make it to us
The original reason I asked op the question was that I don’t understand why there is a higher chance they make it to us vs we make it to them. We should start by taking a prior something like 50⁄50 of us discovering/reaching a civ vs them discovering us. Then, If we are early, we are much more likely to encounter than be encountered.
Any thoughts on how many ICs we expect a civ that makes it to us to have encountered before us?
I think op is correct in their point but missing half the argument.
>(e.g. the difference between now and 1 AD on earth is cosmologically very small, but technologically pretty big)
This is basically correct but it goes both ways. If we hit aliens, or they hit us, and we have not both maxed out all of our stats and are in the late game, then almost certainly one civ will be way more advanced than the other, and so prepratory war planning just isn’t going to cut it. However if we think we are super likely to get wiped by aliens we can try to increase economic growth rates and that would make a difference.
We have not had any conflicts with any interstellar civilizations (ICs?) yet, so the first we have to deal with can’t have had fewer conflicts with other interstellar civilizations than us, only a) the same as us (0), which counts in favour of neither of us, or b) more than us (>0), which counts towards their advantage. So our prior should be that they have an advantage in expectation.
So I agree that this is a good point and selection will definitely apply but I feel like I still don’t quite agree with the phrasing (though it is sort of nitpicky).
>For them to make it to us
The original reason I asked op the question was that I don’t understand why there is a higher chance they make it to us vs we make it to them. We should start by taking a prior something like 50⁄50 of us discovering/reaching a civ vs them discovering us. Then, If we are early, we are much more likely to encounter than be encountered.
Any thoughts on how many ICs we expect a civ that makes it to us to have encountered before us?
I think op is correct in their point but missing half the argument.
>(e.g. the difference between now and 1 AD on earth is cosmologically very small, but technologically pretty big)
This is basically correct but it goes both ways. If we hit aliens, or they hit us, and we have not both maxed out all of our stats and are in the late game, then almost certainly one civ will be way more advanced than the other, and so prepratory war planning just isn’t going to cut it. However if we think we are super likely to get wiped by aliens we can try to increase economic growth rates and that would make a difference.
We have not had any conflicts with any interstellar civilizations (ICs?) yet, so the first we have to deal with can’t have had fewer conflicts with other interstellar civilizations than us, only a) the same as us (0), which counts in favour of neither of us, or b) more than us (>0), which counts towards their advantage. So our prior should be that they have an advantage in expectation.