It is worth noting that we are interested in maximising the positive impact achieved by the donations, which is the product between the amount donated and cost-effectiveness of the donation. Even if the amount donated is constant, differences in cost-effectiveness could imply that a given donation is much better than other. So, it is quite important to understand not only how much people would donate otherwise, but also to which organisations they would give.
In practice, if the counterfactual donation would go to the median charity, I would say it is safe to assume that directing that donation to organisations aligned with effective altruism is quite good (especially because the distribution of cost-effectiveness is heavy-tailed).
The above may suggest that, for fundraising projects which mainly attract people already engaged with effective altruism, the additional impact is small. However, I think organisations like Giving What We Can may still be quite effective via increasing awareness for effective altruism. That being said, I would be quite interested in seeing more (public) analyses of the multiplier effect of such organisation and other fundraising projects (or effective giving organisations like Ge Effektivt).
Answering quickly and informally for Ge Effektivt (sorry, I hadn’t seen this earlier).
When I used something like 1h to try to estimate the counterfactuality of our donations I ended up around 50%. This is removing users who say they found us through Effective Altruism Sweden, Giving What We Can pledgers (although some signed up because of us), people who found us through webpages of charities we donate to, people I know are in the EA Sweden network (some of who I think give more than they otherwise would), and then adding some on top of that. I’m open to suggestions on how to get even closer to the right answer, without spending too much time.
We’re raising a total of ~$700k on a ~$105k budget this year, so in the end, I think our counterfactual multiplier might be around 2-3x.
With that said, I expect the next 12 months to include a more in-depth analysis of counterfactual funds raised for us and similar sites. I am looking forward to sharing the results with you!
Spending 1 h on assessing the counterfactual seems very little for such an important component of the theory of change of multiplier organisations. Some models you may find useful for inspiration are this one from the Effective Altruism Foundation, and this one from RC Forward (mentioned here).
Great question!
It is worth noting that we are interested in maximising the positive impact achieved by the donations, which is the product between the amount donated and cost-effectiveness of the donation. Even if the amount donated is constant, differences in cost-effectiveness could imply that a given donation is much better than other. So, it is quite important to understand not only how much people would donate otherwise, but also to which organisations they would give.
In practice, if the counterfactual donation would go to the median charity, I would say it is safe to assume that directing that donation to organisations aligned with effective altruism is quite good (especially because the distribution of cost-effectiveness is heavy-tailed).
The above may suggest that, for fundraising projects which mainly attract people already engaged with effective altruism, the additional impact is small. However, I think organisations like Giving What We Can may still be quite effective via increasing awareness for effective altruism. That being said, I would be quite interested in seeing more (public) analyses of the multiplier effect of such organisation and other fundraising projects (or effective giving organisations like Ge Effektivt).
Answering quickly and informally for Ge Effektivt (sorry, I hadn’t seen this earlier).
When I used something like 1h to try to estimate the counterfactuality of our donations I ended up around 50%. This is removing users who say they found us through Effective Altruism Sweden, Giving What We Can pledgers (although some signed up because of us), people who found us through webpages of charities we donate to, people I know are in the EA Sweden network (some of who I think give more than they otherwise would), and then adding some on top of that. I’m open to suggestions on how to get even closer to the right answer, without spending too much time.
We’re raising a total of ~$700k on a ~$105k budget this year, so in the end, I think our counterfactual multiplier might be around 2-3x.
With that said, I expect the next 12 months to include a more in-depth analysis of counterfactual funds raised for us and similar sites. I am looking forward to sharing the results with you!
Thanks for the feedback.
Spending 1 h on assessing the counterfactual seems very little for such an important component of the theory of change of multiplier organisations. Some models you may find useful for inspiration are this one from the Effective Altruism Foundation, and this one from RC Forward (mentioned here).