Executive summary: The standard argument for advancing progress is undermined by uncertainty about whether it also advances humanity’s extinction, requiring either better understanding of this connection or a shift to advancing certain kinds of progress relative to others.
Key points:
Whether advancing progress is good depends crucially on if it also brings forward humanity’s end (endogenous vs exogenous end time).
If the end is endogenous, uniformly advancing progress reduces total quality of life by shortening humanity’s lifespan.
Questions about causes of human extinction are central to determining the value of advancing progress.
The issue has been obscured by assumptions of infinite progress or pure time preference in economic models.
Differential progress (advancing some areas relative to others) may be more defensible than uniform advancement.
Further research is needed to close this gap in the argument for advancing progress.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: The standard argument for advancing progress is undermined by uncertainty about whether it also advances humanity’s extinction, requiring either better understanding of this connection or a shift to advancing certain kinds of progress relative to others.
Key points:
Whether advancing progress is good depends crucially on if it also brings forward humanity’s end (endogenous vs exogenous end time).
If the end is endogenous, uniformly advancing progress reduces total quality of life by shortening humanity’s lifespan.
Questions about causes of human extinction are central to determining the value of advancing progress.
The issue has been obscured by assumptions of infinite progress or pure time preference in economic models.
Differential progress (advancing some areas relative to others) may be more defensible than uniform advancement.
Further research is needed to close this gap in the argument for advancing progress.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.