Do you have an opinion about what maturity is best to short?
(My first thought is that if you have a view about what interest rates will do over the next 5–10 years, then you should short 5–10 year bonds. But I’m not sure that’s right.)
I haven’t given that a lot of thought. AI is likely to have the strongest effects further out.
A year ago I was mainly betting on interest rates going up around 2030 via SOFR futures, because I expected interest rates to go down in 2025-6. But now I’m guessing there’s little difference in which durations go up.
Do you have an opinion about what maturity is best to short?
(My first thought is that if you have a view about what interest rates will do over the next 5–10 years, then you should short 5–10 year bonds. But I’m not sure that’s right.)
I haven’t given that a lot of thought. AI is likely to have the strongest effects further out. A year ago I was mainly betting on interest rates going up around 2030 via SOFR futures, because I expected interest rates to go down in 2025-6. But now I’m guessing there’s little difference in which durations go up.