The world might fail in reaching further growth even if we continue trying. So what happens if we globally soon encounter a long period of degrowth? Probably not as much as many fear. Research has found that the need for growth is much about expectations. Like investments and loan decisions are made in the belief that growth will continue. But more is not the same thing as better. A large Swedish report about four different scenarios of a future beyond growth: https://bortombnptillvaxt.se/english/startpage.4.21d4e98614280ba6d9e68d.html#.YSfAq8gvND8
In reports by the UN panel on climate change (IPCC) and the corresponding body for biodiversity – IPBES – the researchers are increasingly more outspoken about overconsumption. The IPBES report from 2019 is based on more than 15 000 scientific publications and was compiled by more than 400 experts from 50 countries. One of the key messages is that a sustainable global economy needs to focus on decreasing levels of consumption and new visions for a good life – quality of life instead of a focus on economic growth. We can still have a lot of growth in important areas, but not overall: https://zenodo.org/record/3553579#.YSzCGMgvND9
I feel like I don’t understand something. The strongest argument against “degrowth” seems that the idea collapses immediately once you consider obvious pragmatic issues, in the same sense a commune or marxist utopia sounds good but doesn’t seem to work in practice.
My guess is that the following is the real world feasibility of these systems:
As one facet of the issue with degrowth, it seems that just moderate implementations are blocked by basic geopolitical or military concerns. If most countries deindustrialized, that leaves even tiny countries like North Korea with great military power.
You might think the reaction to the above would be to keep military institutions intact, but that would lead to wild distortions and doesn’t seem to work since military effectiveness relies on other sectors (technology, cyber espionage, soft power).
I can keep writing about more issues, but it feels very sophomoric and uncharitable in doing so. That is usually a sign I don’t understand what’s going on.
There is a lot of important new research about degrowth, so I will try to summarize:
Most humans try to solve problems by adding, but we should more often reduce. More complexity increases risks: https://podbay.fm/p/sean-carrolls-mindscape-science-society-philosophy-culture-arts-and-ideas/e/1630327697
Degrowth researchers I talked to say that we have convincing findings that green growth is not likely. We might see decoupling, but not rapid enough. So we have to choose between economic growth or reaching our environmental goals in time. Meta-study based on more than 10,000 scientific papers:
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8429
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab842a
See also:
https://eeb.org/library/decoupling-debunked
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301857037_A_Simple_extension_of_Dematerialization_Theory_Incorporation_of_Technical_Progress_and_the_Rebound_Effect
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-02499463/document
https://degrowth.org
The world might fail in reaching further growth even if we continue trying. So what happens if we globally soon encounter a long period of degrowth? Probably not as much as many fear. Research has found that the need for growth is much about expectations. Like investments and loan decisions are made in the belief that growth will continue. But more is not the same thing as better. A large Swedish report about four different scenarios of a future beyond growth:
https://bortombnptillvaxt.se/english/startpage.4.21d4e98614280ba6d9e68d.html#.YSfAq8gvND8
All together, this new research indicates that GDP increases if we work more hours or use more resources (capital, energy, raw materials) per hours. Economic growth is not equivalent to efficiency, creativity or development, but is primarily driven by capital investments: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/8/5/490?fbclid=IwAR35JaACj8pRq54I-K4bFTB2gk1rqjq_1_Brz6ThdFRlVcz0p8HKu0iZPzc
In reports by the UN panel on climate change (IPCC) and the corresponding body for biodiversity – IPBES – the researchers are increasingly more outspoken about overconsumption. The IPBES report from 2019 is based on more than 15 000 scientific publications and was compiled by more than 400 experts from 50 countries. One of the key messages is that a sustainable global economy needs to focus on decreasing levels of consumption and new visions for a good life – quality of life instead of a focus on economic growth. We can still have a lot of growth in important areas, but not overall:
https://zenodo.org/record/3553579#.YSzCGMgvND9
Income level is the single largest contributor explaining the variation in greenhouse gas emissions between households in Sweden, so maybe we should embrace the popular opinion to choose more free time on the society level, instead of raising high salaries even higher? https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jiec.12168?fbclid=IwAR028wFiJx7k6LNK__BmuNqyzJb2XTmKyXgJP-9jxiFi08OKdWsFuQGWKQM
Even during the pandemic, Americans want to prioritize environment more than growth: https://news.gallup.com/poll/344252/americans-emphasis-environmental-protection-shrinks.aspx
We also see global public support for more focus on environment and well-being at the expense of economic growth: https://globalcommonsalliance.org/news/global-commons-alliance/global-commons-g20-survey
Finally, a report about where we have scientific consensus about growth, and where we have the real difference in opinions:
https://cogito.nu/publikationer/ten-thoughts-on-growth
Your thoughts about this?
I feel like I don’t understand something. The strongest argument against “degrowth” seems that the idea collapses immediately once you consider obvious pragmatic issues, in the same sense a commune or marxist utopia sounds good but doesn’t seem to work in practice.
My guess is that the following is the real world feasibility of these systems:
”capitalism >>> high quality technocratic communism >> degrowth >= anarchism ”
As one facet of the issue with degrowth, it seems that just moderate implementations are blocked by basic geopolitical or military concerns. If most countries deindustrialized, that leaves even tiny countries like North Korea with great military power.
You might think the reaction to the above would be to keep military institutions intact, but that would lead to wild distortions and doesn’t seem to work since military effectiveness relies on other sectors (technology, cyber espionage, soft power).
I can keep writing about more issues, but it feels very sophomoric and uncharitable in doing so. That is usually a sign I don’t understand what’s going on.