It seems that one assumption underlying this frame is that EA will largely continue as a unified enterprise, perhaps with some cause areas “spinning off” to mainstream.
I think the possibility of breakup is real enough to include as a possibility in one’s model, at least as a footnote. That could be a collaborative divorce, or a messy one:
An example of a collaborative divorce would be a mix between the second and third possible future scenarios. “Forefront of weirdness” and “return to first wave” have some real tensions, and it’s plausible that a significantly greater degree of separation would help each group better achieve its own goals.
A messy divorce could be caused by (e.g.) a further loss of confidence in centralized institutions due to FTX fallout, or worsening reports of sexual assault in some subcommunities, leading a significant fraction of people to break off for various reasons.
A “together but divided” future is also possible. There are many divisions in e.g. feminism, but everyone still wants to lay claim to the big banner, and will generally regard the others as allies to some degree (even if they write scathing critiques of each other).
This felt much more likely before when the forum consisted of continuous drama, but it seems to have settled down now. However, there could potentially be another wave during SBF’s trial.
It seems that one assumption underlying this frame is that EA will largely continue as a unified enterprise, perhaps with some cause areas “spinning off” to mainstream.
I think the possibility of breakup is real enough to include as a possibility in one’s model, at least as a footnote. That could be a collaborative divorce, or a messy one:
An example of a collaborative divorce would be a mix between the second and third possible future scenarios. “Forefront of weirdness” and “return to first wave” have some real tensions, and it’s plausible that a significantly greater degree of separation would help each group better achieve its own goals.
A messy divorce could be caused by (e.g.) a further loss of confidence in centralized institutions due to FTX fallout, or worsening reports of sexual assault in some subcommunities, leading a significant fraction of people to break off for various reasons.
A “together but divided” future is also possible. There are many divisions in e.g. feminism, but everyone still wants to lay claim to the big banner, and will generally regard the others as allies to some degree (even if they write scathing critiques of each other).
This felt much more likely before when the forum consisted of continuous drama, but it seems to have settled down now. However, there could potentially be another wave during SBF’s trial.