One useful takeaway would be to know whether some interventions are much more uncertain about their range, and if that says something about the strength of evidence. If AMF is 6-10x and deworming is 1-20x (where 1x is point estimate on cash transfer cost effectiveness), then deworming might have a higher point estimate of cost effectiveness than AMF. But the large uncertainty suggests that maybe this is because we have much less evidence and not because the true cost effectiveness is much larger. So a risk averse donor could prioritize AMF on certainty.
In other words, we can favor more certain interventions, even within GiveWell top charities, because they are more robust to the risk that we have got it all wrong. They are less likely to be overturned by a new study. That seems pretty valuable.
One useful takeaway would be to know whether some interventions are much more uncertain about their range, and if that says something about the strength of evidence. If AMF is 6-10x and deworming is 1-20x (where 1x is point estimate on cash transfer cost effectiveness), then deworming might have a higher point estimate of cost effectiveness than AMF. But the large uncertainty suggests that maybe this is because we have much less evidence and not because the true cost effectiveness is much larger. So a risk averse donor could prioritize AMF on certainty.
In other words, we can favor more certain interventions, even within GiveWell top charities, because they are more robust to the risk that we have got it all wrong. They are less likely to be overturned by a new study. That seems pretty valuable.
Also an order of magnitude is really large.