I do think further quantifying the uncertainty would be valuable. That being said, for GiveWell’s top charities, it seems that including/​studying factors which are currently not being modelled is more important than quantifying the uncertainty of the factors which are already being modelled. For example, I think the effect on population size remains largely understudied.
Thanks for the feedback!
I do think further quantifying the uncertainty would be valuable. That being said, for GiveWell’s top charities, it seems that including/​studying factors which are currently not being modelled is more important than quantifying the uncertainty of the factors which are already being modelled. For example, I think the effect on population size remains largely understudied.