I may have misunderstood your first comment, but if I had estimated the effects for GiveDirectly it would have been (on my best guess) less effective than the study showed. From the 2016 paper I inferred GD increased life satisfaction (LS) by 0.3/10 per person. In the Origins of Happiness, Clark et al find a doubling of income increase LS 0.12/10 by. IIRC (and I may not), the $750 transfer from GD is less than a doubling of household income. So the estimated effects would have been approx. 3 times smaller for GD.
Regarding StrongMinds’ treatment, Reay et al. (2012) have a 2 year study of how much of the benefits are retained for interpersonal group therapy (which is what StrongMinds delivers). I agree it is more appropriate to use this than using the Wiles et. al (2016) model—which I interpret as a constant effect for 4 years and then nothing thereafter—as Wiles et al. is based on UK CBT, I think delivered individually. To account for this, in my spreadsheet, I do two estimates, one where I assume the treatment effect is constant as lasts only 4 years, another where 75% of the benefits are retained annually. This latter estimation method is taken from Halstead and Snowden’s Founder’s Pledge report on mental health where they also assess StrongMinds. It turns out the estimates give practically identical results so, in this case, the cost-effectiveness is not sensitive to how duration of effect is modeled.
I agree with you that the best current mental health charity is probably far less cost-effective, relative to whatever the best possible intervention is, than the best current development or physical health charities, on the grounds more effort has been put into the latter. (As you and I have discussed) I am optimistic about finding/developing even better ways to do provide mental health treatments. I didn’t stress this point on the grounds the reader was probably more interested in current interventions than hypothetical interventions, but that could have been an error on my part.
Hello Joey,
I may have misunderstood your first comment, but if I had estimated the effects for GiveDirectly it would have been (on my best guess) less effective than the study showed. From the 2016 paper I inferred GD increased life satisfaction (LS) by 0.3/10 per person. In the Origins of Happiness, Clark et al find a doubling of income increase LS 0.12/10 by. IIRC (and I may not), the $750 transfer from GD is less than a doubling of household income. So the estimated effects would have been approx. 3 times smaller for GD.
Regarding StrongMinds’ treatment, Reay et al. (2012) have a 2 year study of how much of the benefits are retained for interpersonal group therapy (which is what StrongMinds delivers). I agree it is more appropriate to use this than using the Wiles et. al (2016) model—which I interpret as a constant effect for 4 years and then nothing thereafter—as Wiles et al. is based on UK CBT, I think delivered individually. To account for this, in my spreadsheet, I do two estimates, one where I assume the treatment effect is constant as lasts only 4 years, another where 75% of the benefits are retained annually. This latter estimation method is taken from Halstead and Snowden’s Founder’s Pledge report on mental health where they also assess StrongMinds. It turns out the estimates give practically identical results so, in this case, the cost-effectiveness is not sensitive to how duration of effect is modeled.
I agree with you that the best current mental health charity is probably far less cost-effective, relative to whatever the best possible intervention is, than the best current development or physical health charities, on the grounds more effort has been put into the latter. (As you and I have discussed) I am optimistic about finding/developing even better ways to do provide mental health treatments. I didn’t stress this point on the grounds the reader was probably more interested in current interventions than hypothetical interventions, but that could have been an error on my part.