This post introduced the “hinge of history hypothesis” to the broader EA community, and that has been a very valuable contribution. (Although note that the author states that they are mostly summarizing existing work, rather than creating novel insights.)
The definitions are clear, and time has proven that the terms “strong longtermism” and “hinge of history” are valuable when considering a wide variety of questions.
Will has since published an updated article, which he links to in this post, and the topic has received input from others, e.g. this critique from Buck.
If I was going to introduce a new person to this concept today, I think I might instead link them to Holden’s Most Important Century sequence, although Will’s article still seems like the canonical reference for skepticism about us living at the hinge of history.
This post introduced the “hinge of history hypothesis” to the broader EA community, and that has been a very valuable contribution. (Although note that the author states that they are mostly summarizing existing work, rather than creating novel insights.)
The definitions are clear, and time has proven that the terms “strong longtermism” and “hinge of history” are valuable when considering a wide variety of questions.
Will has since published an updated article, which he links to in this post, and the topic has received input from others, e.g. this critique from Buck.
If I was going to introduce a new person to this concept today, I think I might instead link them to Holden’s Most Important Century sequence, although Will’s article still seems like the canonical reference for skepticism about us living at the hinge of history.