Is this slightly off? The factor that goes into the expected impact is the chance of being a non-sim (not the chance of being a sim), so for the argument to make sense, you might wish to replace “the chance of being a sim [...] is 1000x higher than...” by “the chance of being a non-sim is just 1/1000 of...”?
Is this slightly off? The factor that goes into the expected impact is the chance of being a non-sim (not the chance of being a sim), so for the argument to make sense, you might wish to replace “the chance of being a sim [...] is 1000x higher than...” by “the chance of being a non-sim is just 1/1000 of...”?