I agree with your reasoning concerning uncertainty.
In the arguments against HoH, there’s an appeal to the uncertainty of our evaluations of “Influence”. However, the definition of most influential time depends on an evaluation of the opportunity costs of investing in one time vs. another (such as the short-term vs. the long-term).
Uncertainty is a double-edged sword: I get confused when someone argues for “give later” mostly on the ground of our current uncertainty about impact (actually, uncertainty often induces risk-aversion and presentist bias). Suppose that I currently have a credence 0.7 over the statement “AMF saves at least a life (30 QALY) for every U$3,000”; if I wait ten years, I can hope my confidence on such statements will increase to something like 0.8. However, my confidence in such an increase is just 0.9 – so, when I aggregate all of this uncertainty, it’s almost a draw – 0.72.
(Sorry about using point estimates, but I’m no statistician, and I guess we better keep it simple)
Something similar applies to “start a movement”, and I didn’t even mention cluelessness and value shift.
So, if I donate to a Fund that promises me to invest in the best actions in the long term future, instead of the short-term, I have to trust: a) that the world is not going to end first (so, I have to discount extinction rates); b) the Fund and the underlying financial structure will not end first (or significantly lose its value); c) the Fund will correctly identify a more influential moment, and d) its investment will be aligned with my impartial preferences (as I would decide if I had the same info).
I agree with your reasoning concerning uncertainty.
In the arguments against HoH, there’s an appeal to the uncertainty of our evaluations of “Influence”. However, the definition of most influential time depends on an evaluation of the opportunity costs of investing in one time vs. another (such as the short-term vs. the long-term).
Uncertainty is a double-edged sword: I get confused when someone argues for “give later” mostly on the ground of our current uncertainty about impact (actually, uncertainty often induces risk-aversion and presentist bias). Suppose that I currently have a credence 0.7 over the statement “AMF saves at least a life (30 QALY) for every U$3,000”; if I wait ten years, I can hope my confidence on such statements will increase to something like 0.8. However, my confidence in such an increase is just 0.9 – so, when I aggregate all of this uncertainty, it’s almost a draw – 0.72.
(Sorry about using point estimates, but I’m no statistician, and I guess we better keep it simple)
Something similar applies to “start a movement”, and I didn’t even mention cluelessness and value shift.
So, if I donate to a Fund that promises me to invest in the best actions in the long term future, instead of the short-term, I have to trust: a) that the world is not going to end first (so, I have to discount extinction rates); b) the Fund and the underlying financial structure will not end first (or significantly lose its value); c) the Fund will correctly identify a more influential moment, and d) its investment will be aligned with my impartial preferences (as I would decide if I had the same info).