But even if we restricted ourselves to a uniform prior over the first 10% of civilisation’s history, the prior would still be as low as 1 in 100,000.
Why should we use a uniform distribution as a prior? If I had to bet on which century would be the most influential for a random alien civilization, my prior distribution for “most influential century” would be a monotonically decreasing function.
Interesting post!
Why should we use a uniform distribution as a prior? If I had to bet on which century would be the most influential for a random alien civilization, my prior distribution for “most influential century” would be a monotonically decreasing function.