The way I’d think about it is that we should be uncertain about how justifiably confident people can be that they’re at the HoH. If our current credence in HoH is low, then the chance that it might be justifiably much higher in the future should be the significant consideration. At least if we put aside simulation worries, I can imagine evidence which would lead me to have high confidence that I’m at the HoH.
E.g., the prior is (say) 1/million this decade, but if the evidence suggests it is 1%, perhaps we should drop everything to work on it, if we won’t expect our credence to be this high again for another millenia.
I think if that were one’s credences, what you say makes sense. But it seems hard for me to imagine a (realistic) situation where I think that it’s 1% chance of HoH this decade, but I’m confident that the chance will much much lower than that for all of the next 99 decades.
For what it’s worth, my intuition is that pursuing a mixed strategy is best; some people aiming for impact now, in case now is a hinge, and some people aiming for impact in many many years, at some future hinge moment.
The way I’d think about it is that we should be uncertain about how justifiably confident people can be that they’re at the HoH. If our current credence in HoH is low, then the chance that it might be justifiably much higher in the future should be the significant consideration. At least if we put aside simulation worries, I can imagine evidence which would lead me to have high confidence that I’m at the HoH.
I think if that were one’s credences, what you say makes sense. But it seems hard for me to imagine a (realistic) situation where I think that it’s 1% chance of HoH this decade, but I’m confident that the chance will much much lower than that for all of the next 99 decades.
For what it’s worth, my intuition is that pursuing a mixed strategy is best; some people aiming for impact now, in case now is a hinge, and some people aiming for impact in many many years, at some future hinge moment.