The concept of ‘influentialness of a time’ is the same as the cost-effectiveness (from a longtermist perspective) of the best opportunities accessible to longtermists at a time. [...] So if you think that hingeyness (as I’ve defined it) is about the same in 100 years as it is now, or greater, then there’s a strong case for investing for 100 years before spending the money.
Are you referring to average or marginal cost-effectiveness here? If “average”, then this seems wrong. From the perspective of making a decision on whether to spend on longtermist causes now or later, what matters is the marginal cost-effectiveness of the best opportunities available now versus later. For example, it could well be the case that the next century is more influential than this century (has higher average cost-effectiveness) but because longtermism has gained a lot more ground in terms of popularity, all the highly cost-effective interventions are already done so the money I’ve invested will have to be spent on marginal interventions that are less cost-effective than the marginal opportunities available today.
If you’re referring to marginal cost-effectiveness instead, then your conception of “influentialness of a time” seems really counterintuitive. For example suppose people in the next century manage to build a Singleton that locks in aligned values, thus largely preventing x-risks for all time, but because longtermism is extremely popular, there aren’t any interventions with even medium cost-effectiveness left unfunded. It would be quite counterintuitive to say that century has low “influentialness”.
In any case, if the ultimate motivation for this discussion here is to make the “spend now or later” decision, why not talk directly about “marginal cost-effectiveness”?
Are you referring to average or marginal cost-effectiveness here? If “average”, then this seems wrong. From the perspective of making a decision on whether to spend on longtermist causes now or later, what matters is the marginal cost-effectiveness of the best opportunities available now versus later. For example, it could well be the case that the next century is more influential than this century (has higher average cost-effectiveness) but because longtermism has gained a lot more ground in terms of popularity, all the highly cost-effective interventions are already done so the money I’ve invested will have to be spent on marginal interventions that are less cost-effective than the marginal opportunities available today.
If you’re referring to marginal cost-effectiveness instead, then your conception of “influentialness of a time” seems really counterintuitive. For example suppose people in the next century manage to build a Singleton that locks in aligned values, thus largely preventing x-risks for all time, but because longtermism is extremely popular, there aren’t any interventions with even medium cost-effectiveness left unfunded. It would be quite counterintuitive to say that century has low “influentialness”.
In any case, if the ultimate motivation for this discussion here is to make the “spend now or later” decision, why not talk directly about “marginal cost-effectiveness”?