I just realized that there are actually two separate reasons for thinking that the hingiest times in history were periods of population bottlenecks. First, because tiny populations are much more vulnerable to extinction than much larger populations are. Second, because in smaller populations an individual person has a larger share of influence than they do in larger populations, holding total influence constant.
Compare population bottlenecks to one of Will’s examples:
It could be the case [...] that the 20th century was a bigger deal than the 17th century, but that, because there were 1/5th as many people alive during the 17th century, a longtermist altruist could have had more direct impact in the 17th century than in the 20th century.
Unlike the 17th century, which is hingier only because comparatively fewer people exist, periods of population bottlenecks are hingier both because of their unusually low population and because they are “a bigger deal” than other periods.
I just realized that there are actually two separate reasons for thinking that the hingiest times in history were periods of population bottlenecks. First, because tiny populations are much more vulnerable to extinction than much larger populations are. Second, because in smaller populations an individual person has a larger share of influence than they do in larger populations, holding total influence constant.
Compare population bottlenecks to one of Will’s examples:
Unlike the 17th century, which is hingier only because comparatively fewer people exist, periods of population bottlenecks are hingier both because of their unusually low population and because they are “a bigger deal” than other periods.