Hello. I’ll reply here even though my comment covers all three posts. My general worry is that I think you’ve drawn a distinction without a difference. I can see that ‘optimise Earth’ and ‘do the most good’ are different sentences, but I’m still not really sure what the practical differences are supposed to be between them. As a test: what would a ‘do the most good-er’ and an ‘Earth optimiser’ disagree about?
On your EA paradigm vs systems changes paradigm, I fear you’ve specifed EA into a particular, not very generous, way just to make your point. For instance, why can’t an EA say “we should maximise our collective impact”? I agree that EAs should be thinking about co-operation and the full impact of their actions but EAs tend to be aware of this already. I don’t think I know anyone who really wants to maximise their personal impact at the expense of total impact (whatever exactly this means).
Then on this post, you seem to be presenting this as if no EA has ever thought about systemic changes. But that’s not true. EAs have often thought about systemic changes, they just haven’t been (that) convinced by then. If you want to change people’s minds on this issues, I would strongly encourage you to write up one of these areas as a cause profile and compare it to existing ones, e.g. how does it score on scale, tractability and neglectedness? I generally much prefer it if people give (at least somewhat) worked out arguments for why New Cause X is better than Old Cause Y, rather than saying only “ah, but what about New Cause X? Have you considered that?” Advocates of New Cause X tend to be able to do the best job of making the case for that cause anyway, so it makes sense for them to try to do it anyway.
Not disagreeing with Michael_Wiebe, but just thought I’d add this: the SNT framework is just a few rules of thumb anyway. Where people can produce expected value calculations of the intervention in question (e.g. good done/pound), they should just do that. But SNT is a good place to start.
what would a ‘do the most good-er’ and an ‘Earth optimiser’ disagree about?
Great question!
I’m not sure if there is any direct logical incompatibility between a ‘do the most good-er’ and an ‘Earth optimiser’. Rather, I think the Earth optimiser frames the challenge of doing the most good in a particular way that tends to give greater consideration to collective impact and long run indirect effects than is typical in the EA community.
As an Earth optimiser, I am confident that we can substantially improve on our current cause prioritisation methodology, to better account for long run indirect effects and better maximise collective impact. By modelling the Earth as a complex system, defining top-level systemic goals/preferred outcomes, and working backwards to identify the critical next steps to get there, I expect would lead many of us to revise what we currently consider to be top priority causes.
I would strongly encourage you to write up one of these areas as a cause profile and compare it to existing ones
When it comes to complex systems change causes, I think a substantial amount of up front research is typically required to write up a remotely accurate cause profile, that can be compared meaningfully with direct-impact causes. Complex systems typically seem highly intractable at first glance, but a systems analysis may highlight a set of neglected interventions, which when pursued together, make systems change fairly tractable.
As a good example, I am currently part of the leadership team working on a political systems change research project (set up under EA Geneva). This is a year-long project with a team of (part-time volunteer) researchers. We will do a detailed literary review, a series of events with policy makers, and a series of expert interviews. We hope that this will be enough to evaluate the tractability of this as a cause area, and locate it’s priority in relation to other cause areas.
I’m not sure if there is any direct logical incompatibility between a ‘do the most good-er’ and an ’Earth optimiser
Well, in this case, I’m now struggling to see why it’s worth making a fuss about the terminology if it’s just a framing thing. I’m generally against people introducing new terminology just for the sake of it because it confuses people. It seems like you’re reinventing the wheel and claiming you’ve done something more impressive.
I expect would lead many of us to revise what we currently consider to be top priority causes.
This could be true, and I look forward to seeing the arguments. In a similar vein, I’m more in favour of people arriving with new findings they can argue for, rather than just saying “look, this could be so high impact!” because that applies to loads of things.
Hello. I’ll reply here even though my comment covers all three posts. My general worry is that I think you’ve drawn a distinction without a difference. I can see that ‘optimise Earth’ and ‘do the most good’ are different sentences, but I’m still not really sure what the practical differences are supposed to be between them. As a test: what would a ‘do the most good-er’ and an ‘Earth optimiser’ disagree about?
On your EA paradigm vs systems changes paradigm, I fear you’ve specifed EA into a particular, not very generous, way just to make your point. For instance, why can’t an EA say “we should maximise our collective impact”? I agree that EAs should be thinking about co-operation and the full impact of their actions but EAs tend to be aware of this already. I don’t think I know anyone who really wants to maximise their personal impact at the expense of total impact (whatever exactly this means).
Then on this post, you seem to be presenting this as if no EA has ever thought about systemic changes. But that’s not true. EAs have often thought about systemic changes, they just haven’t been (that) convinced by then. If you want to change people’s minds on this issues, I would strongly encourage you to write up one of these areas as a cause profile and compare it to existing ones, e.g. how does it score on scale, tractability and neglectedness? I generally much prefer it if people give (at least somewhat) worked out arguments for why New Cause X is better than Old Cause Y, rather than saying only “ah, but what about New Cause X? Have you considered that?” Advocates of New Cause X tend to be able to do the best job of making the case for that cause anyway, so it makes sense for them to try to do it anyway.
And if your disagreement is with the scale/tractability/neglectedness framework, then argue against that directly.
Not disagreeing with Michael_Wiebe, but just thought I’d add this: the SNT framework is just a few rules of thumb anyway. Where people can produce expected value calculations of the intervention in question (e.g. good done/pound), they should just do that. But SNT is a good place to start.
Great question!
I’m not sure if there is any direct logical incompatibility between a ‘do the most good-er’ and an ‘Earth optimiser’. Rather, I think the Earth optimiser frames the challenge of doing the most good in a particular way that tends to give greater consideration to collective impact and long run indirect effects than is typical in the EA community.
As an Earth optimiser, I am confident that we can substantially improve on our current cause prioritisation methodology, to better account for long run indirect effects and better maximise collective impact. By modelling the Earth as a complex system, defining top-level systemic goals/preferred outcomes, and working backwards to identify the critical next steps to get there, I expect would lead many of us to revise what we currently consider to be top priority causes.
When it comes to complex systems change causes, I think a substantial amount of up front research is typically required to write up a remotely accurate cause profile, that can be compared meaningfully with direct-impact causes. Complex systems typically seem highly intractable at first glance, but a systems analysis may highlight a set of neglected interventions, which when pursued together, make systems change fairly tractable.
As a good example, I am currently part of the leadership team working on a political systems change research project (set up under EA Geneva). This is a year-long project with a team of (part-time volunteer) researchers. We will do a detailed literary review, a series of events with policy makers, and a series of expert interviews. We hope that this will be enough to evaluate the tractability of this as a cause area, and locate it’s priority in relation to other cause areas.
Well, in this case, I’m now struggling to see why it’s worth making a fuss about the terminology if it’s just a framing thing. I’m generally against people introducing new terminology just for the sake of it because it confuses people. It seems like you’re reinventing the wheel and claiming you’ve done something more impressive.
This could be true, and I look forward to seeing the arguments. In a similar vein, I’m more in favour of people arriving with new findings they can argue for, rather than just saying “look, this could be so high impact!” because that applies to loads of things.