How can we be sure that there aren’t a couple dozen more zeroes in there?
I think that’s a great point! I think the behavioral econ/psychology literature should make us cautious too:
people overestimate small frequencies [^1]
and even when told the true probability, people overweight small probabilities (this is standard prospect theory) [^2]
[^1] Lichtenstein, Sarah, Paul Slovic, Baruch Fischhoff, Mark Layman, and Barbara Combs. Judged Frequency of Lethal Events.
[^2] Barberis, Nicholas C. “Thirty Years of Prospect Theory in Economics: A Review and Assessment.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 27, no. 1 (2013): 173–96. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.27.1.173.
How can we be sure that there aren’t a couple dozen more zeroes in there?
I think that’s a great point! I think the behavioral econ/psychology literature should make us cautious too:
people overestimate small frequencies [^1]
and even when told the true probability, people overweight small probabilities (this is standard prospect theory) [^2]
[^1] Lichtenstein, Sarah, Paul Slovic, Baruch Fischhoff, Mark Layman, and Barbara Combs. Judged Frequency of Lethal Events.
[^2] Barberis, Nicholas C. “Thirty Years of Prospect Theory in Economics: A Review and Assessment.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 27, no. 1 (2013): 173–96. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.27.1.173.