I’m still not sure what that means, but if your general point is that we can’t influence behavioral changes through interventions (economic, education, etc) that is obviously incorrect.
My claim is (1) The topic is often sensationalised by many who talk about it (2) some of these people, infer that it could result in humanity going extinct. (3) If it’s a sociological phenomenon, it’s substantially less likely to result in x-risk, because presumably when faced with extinction, future humans would be willing to have more children.
complex mix of social, cultural and economic factors
All of these fit squarely under a broad term like “sociological factors”.
It’s extremely dubious whether these are a factor at all. See Ritchie here, for example.
To be clear, my point wasn’t that fertility advocates are correct to point towards this category of explanations, but that they often do, and they’re wrong in doing so.
(1) The topic is often sensationalised by many who talk about it
Many things are sensationalized. This is not good evidence for or against fertility being a problem. Many accuse AIXR of being sensationalized.
(2) some of these people, infer that it could result in humanity going extinct.
I do not think smart fertility advocates believe that populations would slowly dwindle until there was one person left. Obviously that is a silly model. The serious model, described in Ch. 7 of What We Owe the Future, is that economic growth will slow to a crawl, and the time of perils will be extended. You can also see this model in Aschenbrenner 2020.
(3) If it’s a sociological phenomenon, it’s substantially less likely to result in x-risk, because presumably when faced with extinction, future humans would be willing to have more children.
This is why I think “sociological phenomenon” is confusing more than it is enlightening here. Humans make fertility decisions—based on a wide variety of factors which we do not fully understand—and those decisions matter long before we are on the verge of extinction from depopulation. We do have a number of handles to influence these decisions, should we choose to use them.
Ultimately, I do not believe fertility is a risk because AI will accelerate economic growth even as populations decline, but it is frustrating to see people fail to appreciate the key factors here in their model, and instead dismiss the issue as sensationalized.
My claim is (1) The topic is often sensationalised by many who talk about it (2) some of these people, infer that it could result in humanity going extinct. (3) If it’s a sociological phenomenon, it’s substantially less likely to result in x-risk, because presumably when faced with extinction, future humans would be willing to have more children.
All of these fit squarely under a broad term like “sociological factors”.
To be clear, my point wasn’t that fertility advocates are correct to point towards this category of explanations, but that they often do, and they’re wrong in doing so.
Many things are sensationalized. This is not good evidence for or against fertility being a problem. Many accuse AIXR of being sensationalized.
I do not think smart fertility advocates believe that populations would slowly dwindle until there was one person left. Obviously that is a silly model. The serious model, described in Ch. 7 of What We Owe the Future, is that economic growth will slow to a crawl, and the time of perils will be extended. You can also see this model in Aschenbrenner 2020.
This is why I think “sociological phenomenon” is confusing more than it is enlightening here. Humans make fertility decisions—based on a wide variety of factors which we do not fully understand—and those decisions matter long before we are on the verge of extinction from depopulation. We do have a number of handles to influence these decisions, should we choose to use them.
Ultimately, I do not believe fertility is a risk because AI will accelerate economic growth even as populations decline, but it is frustrating to see people fail to appreciate the key factors here in their model, and instead dismiss the issue as sensationalized.