This kinda overlaps with (2), but the end of 2035 is 12 years away. A lot can happen in 12 years! If we look back to 12 years ago, it was December 2011. AlexNet had not come out yet, neural nets were a backwater within AI, a neural network with 10 layers and 60M parameters was considered groundbreakingly deep and massive, the idea of using GPUs in AI was revolutionary, tensorflow was still years away, doing even very simple image classification tasks would continue to be treated as a funny joke for several more years (literally—this comic is from 2014!), I don’t think anyone was dreaming of AI that could pass a 2nd-grade science quiz or draw a recognizable picture without handholding, GANs had not been invented, nor transformers, nor deep RL, etc. etc., I think.
So “AGI by 2035” isn’t like “wow that could only happen if we’re already almost there”, instead it leaves tons of time for like a whole different subfield of AI to develop from almost nothing.
(I’m making a case against being confidently skeptical about AGI by 2035, not a case for confidently expecting AGI by 2035.)
This kinda overlaps with (2), but the end of 2035 is 12 years away. A lot can happen in 12 years! If we look back to 12 years ago, it was December 2011. AlexNet had not come out yet, neural nets were a backwater within AI, a neural network with 10 layers and 60M parameters was considered groundbreakingly deep and massive, the idea of using GPUs in AI was revolutionary, tensorflow was still years away, doing even very simple image classification tasks would continue to be treated as a funny joke for several more years (literally—this comic is from 2014!), I don’t think anyone was dreaming of AI that could pass a 2nd-grade science quiz or draw a recognizable picture without handholding, GANs had not been invented, nor transformers, nor deep RL, etc. etc., I think.
So “AGI by 2035” isn’t like “wow that could only happen if we’re already almost there”, instead it leaves tons of time for like a whole different subfield of AI to develop from almost nothing.
(I’m making a case against being confidently skeptical about AGI by 2035, not a case for confidently expecting AGI by 2035.)
Great comment!