I understand that OpenAI’s financial situation is not very good [edit: this may not be a high-quality source], and if they aren’t able to convert to a for-profit, things will become even worse:
OpenAI has two years from the [current $6.6 billion funding round] deal’s close to convert to a for-profit company, or its funding will convert into debt at a 9% interest rate.
As an aside: how will OpenAI pay that interest in the event they can’t convert to a for-profit business? Will they raise money to pay the interest rate? Will they get a loan?
It’s conceivable that OpenPhil suing OpenAI could buy us 10+ years of AI timeline, if the following dominoes fall:
OpenPhil sues, and OpenAI fails to convert to a for-profit.
As a result, OpenAI struggles to raise additional capital from investors.
Losing $4-5 billion a year with little additional funding in sight, OpenAI is forced to make some tough financial decisions. They turn off the free version of ChatGPT, stop training new models, and cut salaries for employees. They’re able to eke out some profit, but not much profit, because their product is not highly differentiated from other AI offerings.
Silicon Valley herd mentality kicks in. OpenAI has been the hottest startup in the Valley. If it becomes known as the next WeWork, its fall will be earth-shaking. Game-theoretically, it doesn’t make as much sense to invest in an early AI startup round if there’s no capital willing to invest in subsequent rounds. OpenAI’s collapse could generate the belief that AI startups will struggle to raise capital—and if many investors believe that, it could therefore become true.
The AI bubble deflates and the Valley refocuses on other industries.
It would be extremely ironic if the net effect of all Sam Altman and Mark Zuckerberg’s efforts is to make AI companies uninvestable and buy us a bunch of timeline. Sam by generating a bunch of hype that fails to deliver, and Mark by commoditizing LLMs. (I say “ironic” because EAs are used to thinking of both Sam and Mark as irresponsible actors in the AI space.)
EDIT: there is some criticism of OpenPhil’s approach to its public image here which may be relevant to the decision of whether to sue or not. Also, there’s the obvious point that OpenAI appears to be one of the worst actors in the AI space.
EDIT 2: One also needs to consider how Sam might respond, e.g. by starting a new company and attempting to poach all OpenAI employees.
I understand that OpenAI’s financial situation is not very good [edit: this may not be a high-quality source], and if they aren’t able to convert to a for-profit, things will become even worse:
https://www.wheresyoured.at/oai-business/
It’s conceivable that OpenPhil suing OpenAI could buy us 10+ years of AI timeline, if the following dominoes fall:
OpenPhil sues, and OpenAI fails to convert to a for-profit.
As a result, OpenAI struggles to raise additional capital from investors.
Losing $4-5 billion a year with little additional funding in sight, OpenAI is forced to make some tough financial decisions. They turn off the free version of ChatGPT, stop training new models, and cut salaries for employees. They’re able to eke out some profit, but not much profit, because their product is not highly differentiated from other AI offerings.
Silicon Valley herd mentality kicks in. OpenAI has been the hottest startup in the Valley. If it becomes known as the next WeWork, its fall will be earth-shaking. Game-theoretically, it doesn’t make as much sense to invest in an early AI startup round if there’s no capital willing to invest in subsequent rounds. OpenAI’s collapse could generate the belief that AI startups will struggle to raise capital—and if many investors believe that, it could therefore become true.
The AI bubble deflates and the Valley refocuses on other industries.
It would be extremely ironic if the net effect of all Sam Altman and Mark Zuckerberg’s efforts is to make AI companies uninvestable and buy us a bunch of timeline. Sam by generating a bunch of hype that fails to deliver, and Mark by commoditizing LLMs. (I say “ironic” because EAs are used to thinking of both Sam and Mark as irresponsible actors in the AI space.)
EDIT: there is some criticism of OpenPhil’s approach to its public image here which may be relevant to the decision of whether to sue or not. Also, there’s the obvious point that OpenAI appears to be one of the worst actors in the AI space.
EDIT 2: One also needs to consider how Sam might respond, e.g. by starting a new company and attempting to poach all OpenAI employees.