Note: inspired by the FTX+Bostrom fiascos and associated discourse. May (hopefully) develop into longform by explicitly connecting this taxonomy to those recent events (but my base rate of completing actual posts cautions humility)
Event as evidence
The default: normal old Bayesian evidence
The realm of “updates,” “priors,” and “credences”
Pseudo-definition: Induces [1] a change to or within a model (of whatever the model’s user is trying to understand)
Corresponds to models that are (as is often assumed):
Well-defined (i.e. specific, complete, and without latent or hidden information)
Stable except in response to ‘surprising’ new information
Event as spotlight
Pseudo-definition: Alters the how a person views, understands, or interacts with a model, just as a spotlight changes how an audience views what’s on stage
In particular, spotlights change the salience of some part of a model
This can take place both/either:
At an individual level (think spotlight before an audience of one); and/or
To a community’s shared model (think spotlight before an audience of many)
They can also which information latent in a model is functionally available to a person or community, just as restricting one’s field of vision increases the resolution of whichever part of the image shines through
Example
You’re hiking a bit of the Appalachian Trail with two friends, going north, using the following of a map (the “external model”)
An hour in, your mental/internal model probably looks like this:
Event: the collapse of a financial institutionyou hear traffic
As evidence, thiscauses you to change where you think you are—namely, a bit south of the first road you were expecting to cross
As spotlight, this causes the three of you to stare at the same map as before model but in such a way that your internal models are all very similar, each looking something like this
Events as evidence vs. spotlights
Note: inspired by the FTX+Bostrom fiascos and associated discourse. May (hopefully) develop into longform by explicitly connecting this taxonomy to those recent events (but my base rate of completing actual posts cautions humility)
Event as evidence
The default: normal old Bayesian evidence
The realm of “updates,” “priors,” and “credences”
Pseudo-definition: Induces [1] a change to or within a model (of whatever the model’s user is trying to understand)
Corresponds to models that are (as is often assumed):
Well-defined (i.e. specific, complete, and without latent or hidden information)
Stable except in response to ‘surprising’ new information
Event as spotlight
Pseudo-definition: Alters the how a person views, understands, or interacts with a model, just as a spotlight changes how an audience views what’s on stage
In particular, spotlights change the salience of some part of a model
This can take place both/either:
At an individual level (think spotlight before an audience of one); and/or
To a community’s shared model (think spotlight before an audience of many)
They can also which information latent in a model is functionally available to a person or community, just as restricting one’s field of vision increases the resolution of whichever part of the image shines through
Example
You’re hiking a bit of the Appalachian Trail with two friends, going north, using the following of a map (the “external model”)
An hour in, your mental/internal model probably looks like this:
Event:
the collapse of a financial institutionyou hear trafficAs evidence, this causes you to change where you think you are—namely, a bit south of the first road you were expecting to cross
As spotlight, this causes the three of you to stare at the same map as before model but in such a way that your internal models are all very similar, each looking something like this
Or fails to induce