I generally agree. Though for what it’s worth it seems like it wouldn’t be hard to block others from the territory while remaining in hiding. Presumably any blocking could take place by intercepting ships well before they reach earth. We would have a very hard time noticing something like that.
Apparently there’s something like 7-8 million stars within 1000 light years so yeah, seems like there could have been some instructions sent. That said maybe life is super rare and only exists in 1 in a billion stars or 1 in a trillion. Then maybe any vNM probe would be coming from 10s of thousands of light years away or something.
Another possibility is that something about technological maturity tends to make species less interested in massive and aggressive expansion and/or species capable of making vNM probes tend to die off or become totally inward facing and/or there’s some intergalactic governance system preventing certain actions by vNM probes.
Overall I agree with it lowering probability for vNM probes on earth but I don’t think this reasoning invalidates the theory
I generally agree. Though for what it’s worth it seems like it wouldn’t be hard to block others from the territory while remaining in hiding. Presumably any blocking could take place by intercepting ships well before they reach earth. We would have a very hard time noticing something like that.
Apparently there’s something like 7-8 million stars within 1000 light years so yeah, seems like there could have been some instructions sent. That said maybe life is super rare and only exists in 1 in a billion stars or 1 in a trillion. Then maybe any vNM probe would be coming from 10s of thousands of light years away or something.
Another possibility is that something about technological maturity tends to make species less interested in massive and aggressive expansion and/or species capable of making vNM probes tend to die off or become totally inward facing and/or there’s some intergalactic governance system preventing certain actions by vNM probes.
Overall I agree with it lowering probability for vNM probes on earth but I don’t think this reasoning invalidates the theory