Considering that immigrants are also cheaper to the state than the native-born, and they outearn the native-born, migrants who arrived 2019-2023 will make a net contribution to British finances.
I do not think that the UK should restrict immigration for fiscal reasons. If the UK does choose to restrict immigration—as it seems inclined to do—it should be clear about why. It is not because immigrants have placed “public services and housing access… under too much pressure” and immigration threatens the welfare state. Rather, it is simply because voters don’t like it very much.
Your analysis seems reasonable. But it’s plausible that immigration can both (a) make a net contribution to government finances and (b) place “public services and housing access...under too much pressure” (at least in the short-medium term). This depends on the scale of immigration, and the speed at which additional services, infrastructure, and housing can be developed. Some things can be developed quickly, but others might take decades (e.g. major new transport infrastructure). In recent decades the construction of new housing (and supporting public services) does not seem to have kept pace with the relatively rapid growth in population, mostly driven by immigration.
Your analysis seems reasonable. But it’s plausible that immigration can both (a) make a net contribution to government finances and (b) place “public services and housing access...under too much pressure” (at least in the short-medium term). This depends on the scale of immigration, and the speed at which additional services, infrastructure, and housing can be developed. Some things can be developed quickly, but others might take decades (e.g. major new transport infrastructure). In recent decades the construction of new housing (and supporting public services) does not seem to have kept pace with the relatively rapid growth in population, mostly driven by immigration.
Agree on housing, disagree on NHS: https://www.laurenpolicy.com/p/uk-immigration-and-public-services