the metrics that are usually most useful would be things like percentage or percentage point reduction in x-risks or increase in total value of the future, rather than things like WELLBYs. [...] It might be best to have one main metric for each of the main broad cause areas, and then a very rough sense of the exchange rate between those metrics.
This seems fine; if you’re focusing on percentage point reduction in x-risks, you can abstract away from questions about the size of the future, population ethics, etc. But the key is having the exchange rate, which will be a function of those parameters. So you can work on a specific parameter (eg x-risk), which is then plugged back into the exchange rate function.
This seems fine; if you’re focusing on percentage point reduction in x-risks, you can abstract away from questions about the size of the future, population ethics, etc. But the key is having the exchange rate, which will be a function of those parameters. So you can work on a specific parameter (eg x-risk), which is then plugged back into the exchange rate function.