kokotajlod comments on Leadership change at the Center on Long-Term Risk

[kokotajlod]

I left this comment on one of their docs about cluelessness, reposting here for visibility:

CLR embodies the best of effective altruism in my opinion. You guys are really truly actually trying to make the world better /​ be ethical. That means thinking hard and carefully about what it means to make the world better /​ be ethical, and pivoting occasionally as a result.

I am not a consequentialist myself, certainly not an orthodox EV-maximizing bayesian, though for different reasons than you describe here (but perhaps for related reasons?). I think I like your section on alternatives to ‘going with your best guess,’ I agree such alternatives should be thoroughly explored because ‘going with your best guess’ is pretty unsatisfying.

I’m not sure whether any of the alternatives will turn out to be more satisfying after more reflection, which is why I’m not ready to say I agree with you overall just yet.

But I’m certainly sympathetic and curious.

Thanks!