Thanks for the links. It would have been nice to have got them when I emailed OPP a few days ago with a draft of this article.
I look forward to seeing the fruits of “Making Conversations Smarter, Faster”
I’m going to dig into the AI timeline stuff, but from what I have seen from similar things, there is an inferential step missing. The question is “Will HLMI (of any technology) might happen with probability X by Y” and the action is then “we should invest in most of the money in a community for machine learning people and people working on AI safety for machine learning”. I think worth asking the question, “Do you expect HLMI to come from X technology”. If you want to invest lots in that class of technology.
Rodney Brooks has an interesting blog about the future of robotics and AI. Worth keeping an eye on as a dissenter, and might be an example of someone who has said we will have intelligent agents by 2050, but doesn’t think it will be current ML.
Without taking the time to reply to the post as a whole, a few things to be aware of…
Efforts to Improve the Accuracy of Our Judgments and Forecasts
Tetlock forecasting grants 1 and 2
What Do We Know about AI Timelines?
Some AI forecasting grants: 1, 2, 3.
Thanks for the links. It would have been nice to have got them when I emailed OPP a few days ago with a draft of this article.
I look forward to seeing the fruits of “Making Conversations Smarter, Faster”
I’m going to dig into the AI timeline stuff, but from what I have seen from similar things, there is an inferential step missing. The question is “Will HLMI (of any technology) might happen with probability X by Y” and the action is then “we should invest in most of the money in a community for machine learning people and people working on AI safety for machine learning”. I think worth asking the question, “Do you expect HLMI to come from X technology”. If you want to invest lots in that class of technology.
Rodney Brooks has an interesting blog about the future of robotics and AI. Worth keeping an eye on as a dissenter, and might be an example of someone who has said we will have intelligent agents by 2050, but doesn’t think it will be current ML.